3rd down conversion

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3rd down conversion

Postby DeadRinger » Thu Aug 19, 2021 6:43 am

So in 2020 we had a really good 3rd down conversion rate. For the season we converted 46% of our 3rd downs. That was good for 6th in the league behind GB, BAL, KC, BUF and NO.

But that, of course, doesn't tell the whole story.

We all know how we've been collapsing down the stretch (and btw, I think we have much better depth this season and should be able to hold up better).

So our conversion rate in our final 3 games? Absolutely unacceptable and atrocious. 28%. We only converted 28% of our 3rd downs in the final 3 games of the season. And THAT was ranked 30th in the league over the final 3 games.

For reference, the 5 teams who were ahead of us in full-season conversion rate went like this in their final 3 games:

GB - 61% - they got 10 points BETTER than their average in their final 3 games.
BAL - 53% - 5 points BETTER.
KC - 42% - 6 points worse.
BUF - 31% - 16 points worse - a collapse almost as bad as ours but somehow they won their last 3 games.
NO - 55% - 9 points BETTER.

So the best teams gel as the season goes along and get harder to beat. That 61% mark is fucking INSANE. Anything over 50% is exceptional, anything over 45% is great. We were one of only 7 teams over 45% last season.

Now think about this. How awesome must our conversion rate have been BEFORE our shitty final 3 games in order for it to stay up at 46% for the season even after we collapsed like a bunch of drunken pee wee players in our final games? We were fucking crushing it early, likely in the top 3 conversion rates before we hit our 3-game skid.

I'm sincerely hoping that Gruden has taken a HARD look at these late-season collapses and created contingency plans. I would bet that he has this season for one reason: I'm sure he had some unpleasant conversations with Mark Davis about this very subject. Remember Mark's stated reason for firing Hue Jackson was because we lost our last 5 games straight. So he doesn't look kindly on us going 2-5 in our final 7. I mean, that's basically the equivalent of losing our final 5.

Our ONLY wins in our final 8 games came against the last-place Jets (we should have lost) and the last-place Donkeys. Those 2 teams combined for a 7-25 record last season. And in our 2nd win against the Donkeys we won in the last 24 seconds with a 2-pt conversion to Waller.

I think if Gruden has another late-season collapse he's going to have a VERY hard time of it. If we get out to another 6-2 or 6-3 start and wind up with less than 10 wins, Gruden probably won't lose his job, but "short leash" won't even describe it. I think he'd be on a very hot seat in 2022.
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BETTER be a playoff win in 2022.

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