Your Analysis: Is Carr a top-5 QB?

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Your Analysis: Is Carr a top-5 QB?

Postby DeadRinger » Fri Jul 07, 2017 11:31 am

I was reading some articles today, and everyone heaps massive praise on Carr. But all of it is based on what he's going to do in 2017, 2018 and beyond. I started looking through some career numbers with the question: Is Carr in the top-5 RIGHT NOW?

My conclusion: Not quite, yet.

The top 3 are locked up: Brady, Rodgers, Brees. I seriously doubt anyone else breaks into the top-3 until one of those guys retires.

That leaves 2 spots.

The first guy who comes to mind for me is Big Ben. Looking at his body of work, I have to put him at #4. One could try to argue he's better than Brees, but that argument wouldn't be successful. Ben's 35, and still he made the pro bowl in each of his last 3 seasons (not that I think pro bowls are a great metric anymore, with so many of the best players skipping it). He's getting injured more often, but his ability when he's on the field has not dropped at all. Yeah, he has a couple great players around him right now, but he has gotten the job done with less, so that's a moot point. Last season he started only 14 games, but his overall stats are better than 90% of the guys who lasted the entire year. Add in 2 Lombardi's, an OROY, and the fact that there's NO doubt in my mind he could still lead his team to another SB win, and I have to put Ben at #4, and the best of what I consider the "close second tier" of guys.

After Ben, there's a legitimate argument for Carr. Who are the other guys I feel like he's competing with there?

Matthew Stafford. This dude has thrown for more than 4200 yds in his last 5 seasons. In 2011, he threw for 5000 yds. But I look at two critical stats - TD:INT ratio and QB rating, and that pushes Carr past Stafford IMO.

Matt Ryan. Threw for more than 4500 yds in his last 5 seasons. Went to the SB last year, but even though he played well for the majority of the game, I was singularly unimpressed with how he and the rest of his team choked away a sure win on the biggest stage in the world. To me, that sums up Ryan in a nutshell. He has taken his team to the playoffs in 5 of his 9 seasons, but 3 of those were 1-and-outs. This is a guy who cracks under pressure. His stats were off the charts last season, but again, Carr's career TD:INT ratio push him past Ryan. I just don't think Ryan is "up to" winning a Lombardi, but I'm convinced that Carr is. And when you take care of the football like Carr does, you should def get your chance at one or two of them in your career.

That's 2 down. Who else?

I don't give a shit what anyone says, Russell Wilson's not in the same league. Maybe tier 3.

Cam Newton is among the best passers I've seen when it comes to running QBs, but he's inefficient as hell and too inconsistent. Another guy who went to the SB and couldn't close the deal. In fact, he was pretty shitty in that SB, when they needed him most. It's hard to blame him for losing to DEN's avalanche defense, but I don't like to make excuses for people. Carr is way ahead of Cam in most of the important ways, so Carr wins here as well.

To me, the #5 spot is between Carr and Philip Rivers. Carr has a much better QB:INT ratio, but Rivers' career completion % , career QB rating and the fact that he has thrown for more than 4200 yds in each of his last 4 seasons mean that Rivers gets the nod at #5. In fact, if he could take care of the ball like Carr does, he'd probably have a couple rings to sport.

So there you have it.

"Head of the Class"
1. Brady
2. Rodgers
3. Brees

"Close second tier"
4. Big Ben
5. Rivers
6. Carr
7. Ryan
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Re: Your Analysis: Is Carr a top-5 QB?

Postby silver & black » Fri Jul 07, 2017 11:45 am

Sounds about right to me. Carr should break into elite status in the next couple of years.

I never thought Ben got the credit he deserves. I'm not a Steelers fan by a long shot, but the guy is clutch.... kind of reminds me of Snake the way he finds ways to win. Rivers......... No matter how good he might be....... fuck that bitch! :lol:
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Re: Your Analysis: Is Carr a top-5 QB?

Postby DeadRinger » Fri Jul 07, 2017 11:57 am

silver & black wrote:Sounds about right to me. Carr should break into elite status in the next couple of years.

I never thought Ben got the credit he deserves. I'm not a Steelers fan by a long shot, but the guy is clutch.... kind of reminds me of Snake the way he finds ways to win. Rivers......... No matter how good he might be....... fuck that bitch! :lol:

I had to suppress my gag reflex to put Rivers ahead of Carr, but the numbers don't lie. In the end, I think history will show that Carr is a better QB than Rivers, but right now, and even going into 2017, you can't be intellectually honest and say Carr's the better player.

I like the comparison to Snake, because Ben avoids getting sacked like Snake did. His pocket presence/intuition is second to none, and he's freakin' impossible to take down.
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Re: Your Analysis: Is Carr a top-5 QB?

Postby FreddieB25 » Fri Jul 07, 2017 12:40 pm

Carr has to win in the playoffs because of his efforts and execution in crucial situations of games to put games away to be considered top three for me. Winning in Tampa in October is a different animal than winning in Pittsburgh or New England in January...all the great ones make big plays in January!!!
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Re: Your Analysis: Is Carr a top-5 QB?

Postby bobdigital » Tue Aug 22, 2017 1:09 pm

Yes. Not even a Raiders fan.

Brady/Rodgers/Brees are all better right now.

Ben? He seems to have slipped . He can't seem to win on the road and having lost some mobility from all the hits effects his game to a degree.
Rivers? He is established for sure but he makes too many mistakes. a 2/1 TD/Int ratio was great but today it isn't so hot and that is concerning.
Ryan? He had a great year and has been good in general but Cam Newton showed having one great year doesn't mean all that much. The main thing about Ryan is he just always looks scared in the big moments. The game feels to big for him way too often.

Though he is young and lacks some experience give him him after the top 3.
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Re: Your Analysis: Is Carr a top-5 QB?

Postby piratepride » Thu Aug 24, 2017 6:18 am

Carr is on his way up for sure, dude puts in the time it takes to become great. I like that he sets tje example ala Gannon, which makes everyone else follow suit. Hes a true leader of men snd like Crabtree....im proud to call him my QB.
I'd give him the rest of this year to prove what the already know. Only a matter of time.
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Re: Your Analysis: Is Carr a top-5 QB?

Postby 790thSFS » Thu Aug 24, 2017 7:39 am

everyone of your top 5 qb's have been in the league for over 10 years or more. For Carr's age, he has the most up side. Musgrave held him back if anything. Rivers, Brees, and Rapetheburger Super Bowl days are done. All they have left is to keep up with their legacy. Brady is one of a kind, he is by far the best qb ever. He can win super bowls without super star WR's.
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Re: Your Analysis: Is Carr a top-5 QB?

Postby DeadRinger » Thu Aug 24, 2017 10:13 am

Let's not forget two of the things I said:

"After Ben, there's a legitimate argument for Carr." I do NOT think there's a legit argument for Carr OVER Ben right now.

That leaves the number 5 spot, where things get dicey. Which is why I also said

"In the end, I think history will show that Carr is a better QB than Rivers..." So yeah, the older guys get the nod because they do it consistently. Year in and year out, they post superstar numbers. And Rivers does that - year in and year out - even when his team is disintegrating around him.

So until I see Carr do some of the things these older guys do and have done, I gotta push him down a peg. HOWEVER, I am firmly in the camp that believes Carr is - even right now - fully capable of doing all those things. Just need the proof on the field, that's all. And I don't doubt it will come.

After all, I DID say: "My conclusion: Not quite, yet."
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